February 2025 was a defining month for South Africa’s new vehicle market, reflecting both resilience in domestic sales and headwinds in the export segment. While economic fundamentals remained broadly supportive – underpinned by easing inflation, a lower interest rate environment, and improving consumer sentiment – challenges emerged in external trade conditions and certain vehicle categories. “The 75basis-point rate cut since September, coupled with expectations of further monetary easing, continued to improve vehicle affordability and stimulate demand,” said naamsa CEO Mikel Mabasa.
Private sector credit extension accelerated to 4.9% year-on-year in January, signalling increased liquidity and financing appetite, while employment gains of 132,000 in Q4 2024 bolstered disposable incomes, supporting consumer spending. These factors contributed to the strong growth in the passenger car segment, which saw a 17.0% year-on-year increase. However, commercial vehicle sales – particularly in the light commercial vehicle segment – declined, reflecting ongoing pressures in business confidence and fleet renewal cycles.
Externally, the trade environment was less favourable, with vehicle exports contracting by 8.6% yearon-year, reversing some of the gains seen in 2024. Despite expectations of looser monetary policy in key export markets, weaker demand and lingering trade policy uncertainties, particularly in the US, weighed on outbound shipments. “While global demand for South African-built models remains structurally strong, the decline in February’s export performance underscores the need to navigate shifting trade dynamics carefully,” Mabasa noted.
Inflationary risks remain a concern, with NERSA’s 12.74% electricity tariff hike set for April, posing potential cost pressures for manufacturers. Additionally, the unexpected postponement of the 2025 Budget introduced short-term fiscal uncertainty, though consumer resilience, monetary support, and sustained business confidence helped maintain a positive trajectory for overall vehicle sales. “The February data reflects an industry that is adapting to both domestic tailwinds and global headwinds, reaffirming its structural resilience,” Mabasa concluded.
Reflecting on naamsa’s milestone year, Mabasa stated, “As we celebrate our 90th anniversary in 2025, we honour the journey that has shaped South Africa’s automotive industry into a globally competitive powerhouse. For nine decades, naamsa has been at the forefront of industry transformation, fostering collaboration between government, business, and labour to drive sustained growth and innovation. As we look ahead, naamsa remains steadfast in its commitment to advancing the industry’s sustainable growth, global competitiveness, and transformation through innovation, strategic partnerships, and policy advocacy.”
Aggregate domestic new vehicle sales in February 2025 totalled 47,978 units, reflecting an increase of 3,229 units, or a gain of 7.3%, compared to the 44,749 vehicles sold in February 2024. Export sales declined by 4,861 units, or 8.6%, to 34,656 units in February 2025 from the 39,517 vehicles exported in February 2024. Overall, out of the total reported industry sales of 47,978 vehicles, an estimated 40,376 units, or 84,1%, represented dealer sales, while an estimated 11,1% represented sales to the vehicle rental industry, 2,2% to industry corporate fleets, and 2,5% to government sales.
The February 2025 new passenger car market at 33,757 units had registered an increase of 4,900 cars, or a gain of 17,0%, compared to the 28,857 new cars sold in February 2024. Car rental sales accounted for a sound 14,6% of new passenger vehicles sales during the month. Domestic sales of new light commercial vehicles, bakkies and mini-buses, at 11,802 units in February 2025 recorded a decrease of 1,504 units, or a loss of 11,3%, from the 13,306 light commercial vehicles sold in February 2024.
Sales for the medium and heavy truck segments of the industry showed mixed performance in February 2025. Medium commercial vehicle sales totalled 721 units, reflecting an increase of 76 units, or a gain of 11.8%, compared to the 645 units sold in February 2024. Heavy truck and bus sales totalled 1,698 units, a decrease of 243 vehicles, or a loss of 12.5%, compared to the 1,941 units sold in the corresponding month last year. The February 2025 export sales, at 34,656 units, reflected a decrease of 4,861 vehicles, or a loss of 12.3%, compared to the 39,517 vehicles exported in February 2024.
